Drudge points out a pretty good way of making sure that something turns out all right in the end. Here's CNN:
Two out of three Americans who watched President Barack Obama's health care reform speech Wednesday night favor his health care plans — a 14-point gain among speech-watchers, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national poll of people who tuned into Obama's address Wednesday night to a joint session of Congress.
14 points in one night? That's a hell of jump. Must have been a killer speech. But wait. What's this fine print at the bottom of the page...
The sample of speech-watchers in this poll was 45 percent Democratic and 18 percent Republican.
Oh.
It's been a while since I had fun with pollsters, and so, some more Poll Vaulting:
Showing posts with label Poll Vaulting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poll Vaulting. Show all posts
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Poll Vaulting (V)
In the past couple of weeks, I've been declaring that this year's polls are a load of BS.
I got this link from Steyn's post over at the Corner. The guy's name is Sean Malstrom.
Very interesting and quite bold. We'll see if he's right.
A taste:
In 2004, the media wisely delayed calling states when voting hadn’t been completed (such as Florida in 2000). There will be none of that delay in 2008. I suspect we will have many states called for Obama before the voting is even done. The state that will be erroneously called for Obama will be Pennslyvania. In Pennslyvania, all the Obama votes are mostly in the Philly and Pittsburg area and Obama will comfortably carry those areas. And those areas are the eastern part of Pennslyvania with the western part being more rural. With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)
Update: I re-read the piece. I think the article is a pretty fascinating look at the whole election, and politics in general. I agree with him that Noonan, George Will, and other have shown themselves to be on the way out as "conservatives." They've been in Washington too long. I think his stuff on how polls are conducted is a must-read.
I got this link from Steyn's post over at the Corner. The guy's name is Sean Malstrom.
Very interesting and quite bold. We'll see if he's right.
A taste:
In 2004, the media wisely delayed calling states when voting hadn’t been completed (such as Florida in 2000). There will be none of that delay in 2008. I suspect we will have many states called for Obama before the voting is even done. The state that will be erroneously called for Obama will be Pennslyvania. In Pennslyvania, all the Obama votes are mostly in the Philly and Pittsburg area and Obama will comfortably carry those areas. And those areas are the eastern part of Pennslyvania with the western part being more rural. With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)
Update: I re-read the piece. I think the article is a pretty fascinating look at the whole election, and politics in general. I agree with him that Noonan, George Will, and other have shown themselves to be on the way out as "conservatives." They've been in Washington too long. I think his stuff on how polls are conducted is a must-read.
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