Parler Nucléaire?

Iran is on French radar and - no surprise to anyone that knows them - the French couldn't give a damn what you think.

This is the latest statement from the French government vis a vis Iran's nuclear ambitions: "Ahmadinejad says that the programme is peaceful. Ultimately, we do not believe him. Everyone knows that the programme has military goals."

That's French spokesman David Martinon at a press conference this morning. Pretty bold stuff by today's standards. Someone in the world had the chutzpah to call a dictator a liar.

Ever since French President Nicolas Sarkozy came to power, there has been a decidedly different tone emanating from Paris.
This is Sarkozy on August 27: "A nuclear-armed Iran for me is unacceptable...This approach [dialogue and sanctions] is the only one that would prevent a catastrophic alternative: the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran."

That raised eyebrows, and no wonder. You just don't talk like that these days. But French politicians are fluent at speaking in forked tongues. They'd make masterful poker players, if anyone could stand sitting at the same table with them for more than an hour.

In the same "bombing of Iran" speech, Sarkozy didn't say that it would be the French that would do any bombing...but neither did he say they wouldn't. He then went on to add this about Iraq: "France was and remains hostile to this war...There will only be a political solution,” he added.

Iraq equals politics but Iran equals bombs?

Regarding Iran, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said this last week: "We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war." When the press freaked out over the W-word, Sarkozy tried to put out the fire: "I would not have used the word 'war." Thanks, Nic, that ought to put minds at ease.

Snakes and ladders, twists and turns. That has been the French modus operandi for the past two centuries. It went on vacation during the Chirac presidency. Now it's back, in the form of Sarkozy.

Anyone that needs evidence of the US drawing all of the anti-West limelight need only look at the public reaction to Sarkozy's words: there isn't any. Nada. You have to Google Sarkozy's name to find out anything the man has to say. Though France is a nuclear power and is more than capable of bombing anybody should they feel like it, the protesters remain strangely silent.

Imagine Bush saying the words "bomb" and "Iran" on the same day, let alone in the same sentence. Imagine the US Secretary of Defence saying, "Prepare for war." The headlines would be ten feet high. People would march in the street. CNN would trot out the analysts and we'd have a fine time hearing how "unhelpful" Bush is.

The French hide in the shadows. If I were the Iranians, that would give me great pause. I'd be very, very careful about the way I played this nuclear game. For the past two years, they have been able to manipulate the world because there was only one man to worry about: Bush. And he was transparently hamstrung by his own Congress, the world press, and the UN. Iran knew that it would take a lot, maybe too much, for President Bush to step in and do something about Iranian nukes before they had them. And once they had them, what then? North Korea put paid to that argument last year.

Then out of nowhere comes this Sarkozy character. The Iranians must be wondering how their luck could turn so sour. The French answer to no one, and never have. They stabbed the US in the back on the streets of Paris during Vietnam. They voted for "extreme measures" on Iraq for not opening their doors to inspectors, then betrayed the US again by calling the war a sham.

Pétain - collaborateur
During WWII, the French showed their colors. It is astonishing to me that people do not remember Vichy France, and the concessions that the French made to the Germans. "France" was not conquered by the Germans. Only part of it was. The French surrendered, formed a rump government, and lived out the rest of the war in peace while waiting to see which way the winds of history would blow.

The Iranians would do well to remember this, were they not so ignorant of history. Beware the man that does you a favor: the French are on the sidelines not because they don't believe in the war on Islamic fascism, but because they don't see anything worthwhile about it. They've been letting others duke it out, and watching for an opportunity.

People that believe the US mission in Iraq is all about oil are stupid or misinformed. The US actually believes what they are doing in Iraq is right, for moral and security reasons both. The French are vastly more cynical. They are the true oil-believers. While the Americans and Brits get killed, France buys the oil, and they don't have to fire a shot. All good. But a nuclear Iran changes the formula. A nuclear Iran will alter the costs of French oil interests in the region. The French aren't going to stand for that. Far cheaper to bomb Tehran then be strangled by Tehran's control of the the entire Middle East.

Interesting days lie before us. While the protesters march against the Americans, and the world sings the blues about Iraq, France has their eyes on a far different target. And nobody's watching.