Derek Jeter - MVP?

MVP talk is the in air, and as always it’s the hitting stats that get the first look. So let’s imagine that fielding, pitching, and SportsCentre have absolutely nothing to do with a player’s chances of winning the prize and focus only on lumber.

Mike Wilner, host of Jays Talk on Fan 590 put his hand in the other night by declaring that Derek Jeter is the most overrated player in the AL MVP debate. He followed this statement by saying, “With David Ortiz in the conversation?”

True. Looking at the highlight reel each evening, one would assume that David Ortiz is the man every team would want in the batter’s box at the exclusion of everyone else. He would be your Most Valuable Player, that master of the walk off. But look inside the numbers for your MVP selection, and so far the answer comes up the same every time: Derek Jeter. Hands down, with or without a glove.

The explosive stats lean Ortiz’s way. 41 home runs, 110 RBIs, 86 runs scored. Great hitting numbers, and Jeter can’t touch two of them with 10 homers, 70 RBIs, and 78 runs. But when are these hits coming, and how often? And if Ortiz is the hitter of choice, how does he stack up against other sluggers?

Take Travis Hafner, DH of the lowly Indians. One glance at his stats and Ortiz looks about average. Hafner has 35 homers, comparable to Ortiz’s power. He has 104 RBIs, just under Ortiz’s mark. He has 86 runs, spot on the money with Big Papi. With Hafner hitting .303 to Big Papi’s .287, trouble’s brewing.

Now look at the situational stats and watch Hafner knock Ortiz out of the park. Five stats to look at are hitting with bases empty, runners on, runners in scoring position (RISP), RISP with 2 outs, and finally, bases loaded. Important stuff when your MVP comes to the plate.

Hafner’s average in all five of these situations beats Ortiz. Think Ortiz is money with the bases loaded? Think again, as Hafner almost doubles Ortiz in that regard, hitting a whopping .615 with the bags full, including 6 home runs to Ortiz’s 2.

How about taking a slugger that plays for the home team. Troy Glaus of the Jays has a .264 average, not much below Ortiz at .287. Glaus leads the Jays with 31 homers, 86 RBIs, and 83 runs. A good year so far. But he comes in well under .300 in all five of the above categories, making him at best a so-so prospect when he arrives at the plate and you need him to deliver.

Now for Derek Jeter, an everyday short stop who looks like he would blow away in a stiff breeze. Average fireworks numbers compared to the big boys, even though he’s above the league average in homers, RBIs, and runs scored, not to mention hitting a stellar .341. Look inside our five situational categories and see how he rates:

He is hitting above .330 in each one of them. Jeter’s command of the strike zone is very good, coming to the plate as often as Ortiz but striking out 23 times less. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Jeter is hitting .395, and will get on base over half the time (.527). Ortiz hits .283 in the same situation.

When the chips are down with men on and two out, Jeter hits .385, well above both Hafner and Ortiz. Ortiz gets walked a lot? Maybe, but if Ortiz or Jeter lead off an inning, the smart money is on Jeter getting aboard with a higher batting average and a higher on-base percentage in that situation.

Jeter obliterates Ortiz by hitting .500 with the bases loaded. If the bags are full, there is a 72% chance that he will get on base somehow, most likely resulting in a run. And if he does get on base, he has a good chance of sweating the pitcher, with 26 stolen bases so far this season. Ortiz has stolen one base in as many tries, virtually eliminating him as a threat.

Big Papi gives you a great highlight reel. He packs a lot of fear and ton of awe. But for an American League MVP this season, look to Derek Jeter for the whole package. He brings a glove, a threat to steal, and a dependable, dangerous bat.