"Exit Polls Show Obama Big."
So says a Drudge headline. I haven't turned on the TV all day, so I assume they'll be trumpeting the same message on CNN et al.
Fine, fine. Dems always do well in the 1% of people being polled after they vote. Remember that the number doesn't include the people who told the exit poller to go and screw himself.
Polls in the east coast don't close for another 50 minutes, and west coast voters haven't left the office yet. This is the media's one last shot at controlling the election. So everyone should just stay the course and...vote.
Showing posts with label US Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Election. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Poll Vaulting (V)
In the past couple of weeks, I've been declaring that this year's polls are a load of BS.
I got this link from Steyn's post over at the Corner. The guy's name is Sean Malstrom.
Very interesting and quite bold. We'll see if he's right.
A taste:
In 2004, the media wisely delayed calling states when voting hadn’t been completed (such as Florida in 2000). There will be none of that delay in 2008. I suspect we will have many states called for Obama before the voting is even done. The state that will be erroneously called for Obama will be Pennslyvania. In Pennslyvania, all the Obama votes are mostly in the Philly and Pittsburg area and Obama will comfortably carry those areas. And those areas are the eastern part of Pennslyvania with the western part being more rural. With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)
Update: I re-read the piece. I think the article is a pretty fascinating look at the whole election, and politics in general. I agree with him that Noonan, George Will, and other have shown themselves to be on the way out as "conservatives." They've been in Washington too long. I think his stuff on how polls are conducted is a must-read.
I got this link from Steyn's post over at the Corner. The guy's name is Sean Malstrom.
Very interesting and quite bold. We'll see if he's right.
A taste:
In 2004, the media wisely delayed calling states when voting hadn’t been completed (such as Florida in 2000). There will be none of that delay in 2008. I suspect we will have many states called for Obama before the voting is even done. The state that will be erroneously called for Obama will be Pennslyvania. In Pennslyvania, all the Obama votes are mostly in the Philly and Pittsburg area and Obama will comfortably carry those areas. And those areas are the eastern part of Pennslyvania with the western part being more rural. With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)
Update: I re-read the piece. I think the article is a pretty fascinating look at the whole election, and politics in general. I agree with him that Noonan, George Will, and other have shown themselves to be on the way out as "conservatives." They've been in Washington too long. I think his stuff on how polls are conducted is a must-read.
The Waiting
They're on tenterhooks around the globe:
"Like many French people, I would like Obama to win because it would really be a sign of change," said Vanessa Doubine, shopping Tuesday on the Champs-Elysees. "I deeply hope for America's image that it will be Obama."
I'm sure the American people are grateful for your sympathy. Happy shopping, everybody!
"Like many French people, I would like Obama to win because it would really be a sign of change," said Vanessa Doubine, shopping Tuesday on the Champs-Elysees. "I deeply hope for America's image that it will be Obama."
I'm sure the American people are grateful for your sympathy. Happy shopping, everybody!
Sweating the Rules
I was waiting to see something like this. It's John Podhoretz' hedge on the popular vote vs. the Electoral College. It's a bitch and moan you haven't had to worry about much until the Bush years.
I didn't expect to see an article on it this time around because everyone was expecting Obama to trounce McCain in both the popular vote and the Electoral College count. He still might, but I guess Podhoretz had some sleepless nights worrying that state polls might be wrong.
Some of my friends have trouble with the concept of the Electoral College. They think it's weird, and they're right. It's unique. They also think it's unfair, which is a laugh coming from people who vote in parliamentary systems. I tell them that they have to put the popular vote concept out of their mind when looking at a US presidential election. It's irrelevant, like applying the NFL rulebook to a baseball game. (And let me add, again: the place is called the United States. States. States. States. Get it? That word means something. Or should).
Yesterday, Podhoretz expanded on his worry that if McCain wins the Electoral College, but Obama creams him in the popular vote, there will be a "national crisis."
No there won't.
There will be only a half-national crisis: people that voted for Obama. But I don't believe that they will freak out and try to burn down the country.
Americans are very rigid about rules. Obama hopefuls would eagerly take an Electoral College victory over a popular win, because they know that's the way to gain the White House. Though they'd hate it if it swung that way for McCain, they know deep down that they'd praise a win on the same terms.
Says Podhoretz:
A McCain presidency under these conditions would be a model of institutional paralysis. With the exception of the veto, which McCain would of course relish more than any other presidential power, he would be among the weakest chief executives in modern times, if not the weakest. And it would be interesting to see whether the Electoral College itself could survive it. (It would be abolished, presumably, not by amending the Constitution but by passing laws in the states requiring electors to vote for the nationwide vote winner; such a law already exists in a few of them.)
That's quite a leap. Don't like the constitution's election rules? Change the playing field immediately. That dovetails nicely with Obama's philosophy that the constitution is a flawed document in need of changing, though he is running for the job of defending it. Besides, if Poderhetz thinks states like Texas would gladly forfeit their choice of president to toe some national line, he's insane. (And again, Johnny: States. Say it with me. You can do it).
Podhoretz is bipolar on the issue. In the same article, prior to saying that McCain would be a lame duck and the Electoral College would disintegrate, he write this:
It is true that the existence of the Electoral College is crucial to preserving some sort of balance in the United States between the small states and the larger states, and serves as yet another mediating institution — another means by which unbridled political power is checked.
All this is true. But it is beside the point in 2008.
And there we have the true liberal philosophy of the 21st century: "If it doesn't give me whatever I want, it must be bad." Poor John. He doesn't realize that the Electoral College is in the constitution to protect the country from people exactly like him: people that think unbridled political power is "beside the point."
Podhoretz believes that one year's election should supersede over two centuries of national law and tradition. Why? Because he exists.
Vanity, vanity, all is vanity.
I didn't expect to see an article on it this time around because everyone was expecting Obama to trounce McCain in both the popular vote and the Electoral College count. He still might, but I guess Podhoretz had some sleepless nights worrying that state polls might be wrong.
Some of my friends have trouble with the concept of the Electoral College. They think it's weird, and they're right. It's unique. They also think it's unfair, which is a laugh coming from people who vote in parliamentary systems. I tell them that they have to put the popular vote concept out of their mind when looking at a US presidential election. It's irrelevant, like applying the NFL rulebook to a baseball game. (And let me add, again: the place is called the United States. States. States. States. Get it? That word means something. Or should).Yesterday, Podhoretz expanded on his worry that if McCain wins the Electoral College, but Obama creams him in the popular vote, there will be a "national crisis."
No there won't.
There will be only a half-national crisis: people that voted for Obama. But I don't believe that they will freak out and try to burn down the country.
Americans are very rigid about rules. Obama hopefuls would eagerly take an Electoral College victory over a popular win, because they know that's the way to gain the White House. Though they'd hate it if it swung that way for McCain, they know deep down that they'd praise a win on the same terms.
Says Podhoretz:
A McCain presidency under these conditions would be a model of institutional paralysis. With the exception of the veto, which McCain would of course relish more than any other presidential power, he would be among the weakest chief executives in modern times, if not the weakest. And it would be interesting to see whether the Electoral College itself could survive it. (It would be abolished, presumably, not by amending the Constitution but by passing laws in the states requiring electors to vote for the nationwide vote winner; such a law already exists in a few of them.)
That's quite a leap. Don't like the constitution's election rules? Change the playing field immediately. That dovetails nicely with Obama's philosophy that the constitution is a flawed document in need of changing, though he is running for the job of defending it. Besides, if Poderhetz thinks states like Texas would gladly forfeit their choice of president to toe some national line, he's insane. (And again, Johnny: States. Say it with me. You can do it).
Podhoretz is bipolar on the issue. In the same article, prior to saying that McCain would be a lame duck and the Electoral College would disintegrate, he write this:
It is true that the existence of the Electoral College is crucial to preserving some sort of balance in the United States between the small states and the larger states, and serves as yet another mediating institution — another means by which unbridled political power is checked.
All this is true. But it is beside the point in 2008.
And there we have the true liberal philosophy of the 21st century: "If it doesn't give me whatever I want, it must be bad." Poor John. He doesn't realize that the Electoral College is in the constitution to protect the country from people exactly like him: people that think unbridled political power is "beside the point."
Podhoretz believes that one year's election should supersede over two centuries of national law and tradition. Why? Because he exists.
Vanity, vanity, all is vanity.
Line-Ups (Or: Hand Me the Keys You...)
I've been reading a few blogs saying that the line-ups at the polls are stretching down the street. This could either be voter enthusiasm or, as one emailer to the Corner points out, an indication of election official incompetence.
Beware the Corner today, by the way; there's a lot of talk of booze - not champagne, but scotch, martinis, and the regular run-a-warm-bath cocktail recipes. One guy's even quoting a Time article from 1980 to give him comfort. Many bloggers there are also using inspirational movie clips to make it through the day, with stuff from Gladiator and Patton. Lame. I've got my own pick below.
I've been wondering about the long polling station line-ups for the last couple of weeks. I know Canada is a much smaller country than the US, but we have our act together compared to these clowns. Whenever I vote at the little elementary school down the street, I see a lot of people heading to the school with registration in hand, and lots of cars in the parking lot, but things are moving along fine. When I get to the school, I show my diver's license, wait about 20 seconds, go to the booth, vote, and walk away. Every year I get told to go to the polls early in case of line-ups, and every year the fifteen or so old biddies get the job done in a flash.
It is not a very difficult concept. If you have a lot of people voting, you should open more polling stations and hire more workers to man them.
Election tampering, though, is a different story. We'll see how many of those tales we get today.
Speaking of line-ups, here's a clip that always makes me crack up. Warning: foul language. Turn it up so your kids can hear.
Beware the Corner today, by the way; there's a lot of talk of booze - not champagne, but scotch, martinis, and the regular run-a-warm-bath cocktail recipes. One guy's even quoting a Time article from 1980 to give him comfort. Many bloggers there are also using inspirational movie clips to make it through the day, with stuff from Gladiator and Patton. Lame. I've got my own pick below.
I've been wondering about the long polling station line-ups for the last couple of weeks. I know Canada is a much smaller country than the US, but we have our act together compared to these clowns. Whenever I vote at the little elementary school down the street, I see a lot of people heading to the school with registration in hand, and lots of cars in the parking lot, but things are moving along fine. When I get to the school, I show my diver's license, wait about 20 seconds, go to the booth, vote, and walk away. Every year I get told to go to the polls early in case of line-ups, and every year the fifteen or so old biddies get the job done in a flash.
It is not a very difficult concept. If you have a lot of people voting, you should open more polling stations and hire more workers to man them.
Election tampering, though, is a different story. We'll see how many of those tales we get today.
Speaking of line-ups, here's a clip that always makes me crack up. Warning: foul language. Turn it up so your kids can hear.
Monday, November 03, 2008
It Only Took 8 Years
From the Hollywood Reporter:
"There's no way to get around it," CBS News senior vp Paul Friedman said. "If one man gets 270 electoral votes before the West Coast polls are closed, we're not going to pretend (he doesn't)."
Phil Alongi, who runs special events programing at NBC News, agrees.
"If you project a state and (the candidate) reaches the electoral vote, what are you going to do? Lie?" Alongi said. "We will project a state when we're comfortable with the projection. If one of them hits the required 270, you have to report that, and you can't hold back."
Reporters, worthless swine that they are, have learned nothing from 2000. You didn't really believe them during the Gore/Bush fiasco when they said they'd change their evil ways, did you?
Funny. Back in the days when people had to wait weeks while news of votes was brought in by horseback, nobody seemed to mind. We're just so much more sophisticated now.
"There's no way to get around it," CBS News senior vp Paul Friedman said. "If one man gets 270 electoral votes before the West Coast polls are closed, we're not going to pretend (he doesn't)."
Phil Alongi, who runs special events programing at NBC News, agrees.
"If you project a state and (the candidate) reaches the electoral vote, what are you going to do? Lie?" Alongi said. "We will project a state when we're comfortable with the projection. If one of them hits the required 270, you have to report that, and you can't hold back."
Reporters, worthless swine that they are, have learned nothing from 2000. You didn't really believe them during the Gore/Bush fiasco when they said they'd change their evil ways, did you?
Funny. Back in the days when people had to wait weeks while news of votes was brought in by horseback, nobody seemed to mind. We're just so much more sophisticated now.
How Elections Work in Media Land
From Howard Kurtz, chief janitor of media bile over at the Washington Post:
Better plan on an early dinner tonight.
It is possible that, at 7 p.m., network anchors and their map manipulators will make projections that strongly suggest Sen. Barack Obama is on his way to winning the presidency. But if Obama fails to capture a handful of key states by 8 p.m. or so, then Sen. John McCain has a shot at getting to the magic 270 and everyone could be in for a long night..."These are canaries in the coal mine," said Charlie Cook, the veteran analyst and NBC contributor. "When they start dying, there are huge problems for the Republicans."
"If Obama wins Virginia, he's won the election," said Tad Devine, who worked for John F. Kerry and Al Gore.
Got it. If you live in California, click on the news at 4:00 pm. If Charlie Gibson tells you it's over, forget voting and just head to bar. The gods have spoken.
Kind of puts the lie to their whole "make sure to vote" crap, doesn't it?
Better plan on an early dinner tonight.
It is possible that, at 7 p.m., network anchors and their map manipulators will make projections that strongly suggest Sen. Barack Obama is on his way to winning the presidency. But if Obama fails to capture a handful of key states by 8 p.m. or so, then Sen. John McCain has a shot at getting to the magic 270 and everyone could be in for a long night..."These are canaries in the coal mine," said Charlie Cook, the veteran analyst and NBC contributor. "When they start dying, there are huge problems for the Republicans."
"If Obama wins Virginia, he's won the election," said Tad Devine, who worked for John F. Kerry and Al Gore.
Got it. If you live in California, click on the news at 4:00 pm. If Charlie Gibson tells you it's over, forget voting and just head to bar. The gods have spoken.
Kind of puts the lie to their whole "make sure to vote" crap, doesn't it?
Joe. Put Down The Crack Pipe.
Joe Biden at a campaign rally in Missouri today:"You know why I think Jill likes Claire McCaskill so well, Senator McCaskill? Jill is one of five sisters, Claire is one of three sisters. And I tell you what, you women raised with sisters are different than women raised with brothers," Biden said as both women joined him on stage.
"My sister is smart, runs every one of my campaigns; is beautiful; graduated with honors from college; is homecoming queen. But she's a ... she is what I call a 'girl-boy' growing up, you know what I mean?"
"And I tell you what? Girl-girls are tougher than girl-boys," he said. "But there's one important thing I noticed.The great thing about marrying into a family with five sisters, there's always one that loves you. 'Cause you can count on splitting them a bit. You know what I mean?
"I shouldn't be going off like this, but -- hey, folks, 37 more hours, 37 more hours," he then said.
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