Poll Vaulting (V)

In the past couple of weeks, I've been declaring that this year's polls are a load of BS.

I got this link from Steyn's post over at the Corner. The guy's name is Sean Malstrom.

Very interesting and quite bold. We'll see if he's right.

A taste:

In 2004, the media wisely delayed calling states when voting hadn’t been completed (such as Florida in 2000). There will be none of that delay in 2008. I suspect we will have many states called for Obama before the voting is even done. The state that will be erroneously called for Obama will be Pennslyvania. In Pennslyvania, all the Obama votes are mostly in the Philly and Pittsburg area and Obama will comfortably carry those areas. And those areas are the eastern part of Pennslyvania with the western part being more rural. With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)

Update: I re-read the piece. I think the article is a pretty fascinating look at the whole election, and politics in general. I agree with him that Noonan, George Will, and other have shown themselves to be on the way out as "conservatives." They've been in Washington too long. I think his stuff on how polls are conducted is a must-read.