Oscar Picks

Word's out that this is going to be the most boring Oscar night in living memory.

So what's new? The Oscars are always boring. But last year's crop of horribly depressing flicks which no one saw will probably send tonight's broadcast into the crapper.

I almost never watch the Oscars, except when flicking over when there's a commercial during the hockey game. This year will be no different. The Oscars are too long and boring, and it's easier just to read a webpage at 1AM to find out who won.

In any event, here's my picks:

Best Actor (Winner): Sean Penn. He did a good job in Milk, and the Academy should throw it to him on political grounds. Frank Langhella has received heaps of praise for his portrayal of Nixon, so he might sneak in the back door, but the political climate in California right now almost demands that the trophy go to Penn so he can make a lame speech about how important his movie is.

Who deserves it? Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler, though I'd love to see Richard Jenkins win for his part in The Visitor.

Best Supporting Actor (Winner): Heath Ledger in The Dark Night. If memory serves, there hasn't been a posthumous Oscar since director of photography Conrad Hall. I didn't think Ledger's performance as the Joker was memorable, but there's no way the Academy will skip him. Who will accept the award? The Academy isn't saying, but they have said that it will be bequeathed to Ledger's 3-year-old daughter. [I just heard that Ledger's dad is going to be at the Oscars and that he wrote a speech. If true, this will be a poignant moment].

Who deserves it? Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder. Comedies almost never produce Academy Awards, even though drama actors and directors constantly tell us us that comedy is the hardest art form. Whatever. That's simply a big brother making excuses for a little brother that embarrasses them. Downey Jr. wasn't stellar in Tropic Thunder, but he was very funny. I'm always on the side of the comedians.

Best Actress (Winner): This is a tough one, because there's four women the Academy would love to give it to. Anne Hathaway, because we've never seen someone play a drug addict before. Angelina Jolie, because she cried a lot. Meryl Streep, because she's Meryl Streep, played an evil nun, and (remember, she's Meryl Streep) she spoke with the 100th accent of her career. Kate Winslet, because she's Kate Winslet, comes from England, and she showed her breasts while starring in a Nazi movie. Oh, and she cried a lot, too. I'm guessing in will go to Winslet.

Who deserves it? Melissa Leo, in a small, tough movie called Frozen River. Tellingly, for all of Hollywood's "feeling the people's pain" BS, none of these actresses except Leo were in a movie about today's hard times. Frozen River is about a woman living in an upstate New York trailer who turns to smuggling illegal immigrants in the trunk of her jalopy. The rest of the actress nominees appear in films that take place long, long ago, or a spoiled rich kid who got hooked on smack and blames her mom.

Best Supporting Actress: I think the Academy might agree with me on this. Viola Davis for Doubt. The movie wasn't great, and Viola was only in it for five minutes, but they were a great five minutes. She literally turned the movie on its head. Loved her performance.

Who Doesn't Deserve It? Marissa Tomei. The movie was very good, but Tomei was just there. Any number of competent actresses could have played the role and maybe done better. I think she suffered because her age and beauty didn't match the constant "washed up" label given to her character.

Cinematography: The Dark Knight. I agree, though Benjamin Button would be fine, too. The Wrestler should have been nominated.

Best Director: Who knows? Gus Van Sant for the politics of Milk, or Ron Howard for the politics of Frost/Nixon.

Who Deserves It? Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, or David Fincher for Benjamin Button. Either one is fine by me, because they'd be a thumb in the eye to the artsy crowd. Both of them come out of the action/thriller scene, a genre that always pleases the crowds but never wins awards. Tonight, perhaps one of them can beat the snobs at their own game.

Best Picture: See "Best Director" above.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): This should go to Slumdog Millionaire. If it goes to Frost/Nixon, it's a joke, because the interviews could have been transcribed from YouTube.

Writing (Original): I was stunned to see In Bruges nominated. It's got a taste of comedy in it, plus a lot of gunplay. The Academy must have been hurting for nominations to give In Bruges a nod. For all of that, I didn't think the movie was that good. The Academy will most likely give it to Milk, though I think Frozen River is the best script in the bunch.