Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Channeling Gordon Gekko

The US government stepped in to bail out AIG. I still don't feel comfortable with that kind of thing. That's not the way the capitalist system is supposed to work.

With everyone saying that the system "failed," we need to be brutally honest with each other. The system did not fail. The system functioned perfectly. We just don't like the current result. Too many people from Main Street and Wall Street made a lot of big, foolish bets, and they eventually drew a busted flush.

There is no "bogeyman" on Wall Street. There's just a bunch of guys playing the biggest crap game on earth. They're greedy, but no more greedy than the people on Main Street (though I do regard the Golden Parachute CEOs as scumbags).

I've seen a lot of commentators complain about the world's nasty culture of greed. A good many, including Bill O'Reilly, are saying that they too have been hit by the slumping stock market. They blame it all on what O'Reilly calls, "The greed-heads." Well, Bill, you'd better sign yourself up for a Greed-Head bumper sticker, because that's exactly what you are.

Everyone plays the market for one reason only: to make more money. They're greedy. Sometimes you hit it big. Often times you make or lose a little. And a very small part of the time you get cocky, push all in, and get wiped out.

It amazes me that people don't remember that playing any market is gambling. Stocks, bonds, financials, housing, you name it. These rackets are literally no different than blackjack or roulette: "If I take a card on this hand, I should win...oh, shit."

If you buy stock, you're gambling that it will go up, or at least won't tank while paying some dividends. When you land a big job and take a mortgage on a beautiful house, you're betting that you won't get fired next week. When you buy a "fixer upper," you're banking that the housing market won't dip before you put in the marble tile.

When you gamble, sometimes you get burned. What we're seeing this week is a massive burn on a certain sector of the market that had too many chips on one number. Now everyone's screaming that the system is horrible.

Oh? It wasn't so horrible when those numbers were skyrocketing and you were making a ton of bread, was it? The system was fabulous back then, and truly fantastic for the guy who sold out early. And, though you don't want to hear it, the system is still fabulous now. Just maybe not for you. There's a lot of guys out there making hay out of this "catastrophe." In fact, they're licking their chops at the latest series of bad headlines.


I am leery whenever I hear that something needs more government regulation. We complain every day that the government is run by morons, so it makes no sense to feel relief when that same government starts running even more parts of our lives. That's what regulation means: the government looking over your shoulder and telling you what to do. But how do you regulate stupidity? It's against the law to be fraudulent, but it's not illegal to be an idiot.

"But," you say, "we need more regulation. Things are getting worse, and they won't get better."

Well, you're not a gambler. According to Market Watch, 84% of private company CEOs think the opportunities coming out of this disaster will outweigh or offset any negatives. Out of this mess, they see a chance to make even more cash.

There's an old line that says the market is driven by two things: greed and fear. We're in for a big dose of fear over the coming months, but greed is strong. It will be back. Bet on it.

(Here's a good piece from Market Watch about the panic gripping Wall Street. It has a great line: "With the mood on Wall Street now as dark as a mushroom farm, optimists are much more likely than pessimists to be proven right in the end.")

Photos: Time / 20th Century Fox

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