One thing that's been missing from most political story lines this year is Latin America. Early in 2008 all I'd hear about is Iraq and Afghanistan. Then it was presidential politics. Finally it was the economy, which looks to be the story that will take us into 2025. Problem: nobody's been talking about Latin America's renewed love affair with Russia.
During the US presidential election this relationship was never discussed. I thought both Obama and McCain were utter fools not to see Latin America as worth mentioning. Whenever they were asked about Russia, they would talk about Ukraine and Georgia and I would wonder if they were blind.
Georgia is small potatoes. For most Americans, Ukraine and Georgia might as well be on the moon. Latin America is right next door and it's worth worrying about.
Either McCain and Obama were ignoring Russia's new push into Latin America, or worse, they didn't see the implications of what the Russians were doing there. Worse yet, they saw the implications but didn't take them seriously. Now one of them is set to go into the White House as the next President, and he'd better wake up.
It's a mistake to believe that Russia simply wants to gain an economic position there. Don't take my word for it. Here it is from the horse's mouth: "The current level of cooperation could be broader than in the Soviet era. Latin America has already ceased to be the United States' backyard," a Russian diplomatic source told the Russian daily Kommersant. "Now the region is following its own line, which gives Russia an opportunity to strengthen our position," said the official.
"Following its own line...Strengthen our position." That's an awfully peculiar way of saying you're just hoping to make a few bucks.
In the past couple of months, Russia has delivered weapons to Venezuela and will conduct joint military exercises in the region next week. They're also set to meet with Cuban and Peruvian leaders at the end of the month. If this had happened twenty-five years ago, it would be perceived as an act of extreme aggression against the US, and rightly so.
Unfortunately, Western people tend to think of all things as having "beginnings" and "endings." Germans hated Jews because of Adolph Hitler; when Hitler died, Germans became nice people again. Of course Russians can't consider America an enemy - they lost the Cold War; now they're a happy member of the "international community."
Oh, really? Just because Communist Russia went bankrupt doesn't mean they were glad to get down on their knees to be proud little disciples of democracy. Far from it. When I was in St. Petersburg watching Russian military bands play Yankee Doodle Dandy, I could only imagine the rage that burned deep in the hearts of Russian generals.
The Russians have found a great opportunity. The US is distracted by the economy, Iraq, the economy, Iran, the economy, Afghanistan, the economy, and Obama's election. And the economy. Sooner or later, US leaders will look up to discover that the Russians have established a base of power just south of Florida. And then what?
Today I read a report which laughs at the next round of Russian visits to the region:
Latin America analyst Johanna Forman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, described as "ham-fisted" a trip crafted months before the November 4 election victory of a more conciliatory US president, Barack Obama.
"It's more an in-your-face approach that may not resonate when you have a new administration ... The Russians are still fighting a war with Bush," she said.
That's an incredibly dangerous and naive way to look at a new Russian backyard: the bully's trying to intimidate Bush but - ha ha- Bush is leaving, so what a fool the bully is.
News flash: this isn't about Bush. It's about Russia. Playing Mr. Nice Guy has never cut it. If their in-your-face tactics don't resonate with Mr. Obama, so much the better for them. By the time they do resonate, it's too late.
Some time back I read a report about the Russian navy heading to the Caribbean to conduct exercises with Venezuela (the Russian ships will arrive in Venezuela next week). Another modern day Chamberlain had this to say: Jason Alderwick, naval analyst at the institute, said that the Russian warships, which set off from their base at Severomorsk, near Murmansk on the Arctic coast, were Cold War “legacy ships”, not the modern vessels deployed by Western navies with advanced communications and surveillance systems.
“This is a case of naval diplomacy rather than a demonstration of capability,” he said.
It depends on what you mean by "capable." Me, I see it is a very big demonstration of capability. The Russians aren't out to show the US that they have all of the latest gadgets. They are showing the US that they are capable of establishing a base of power in the Caribbean, and they want to see what the US will do about it. They have their answer: nothing.
Having pushed the envelope a little with news of that pleasure cruise, in September the Russians sent two Tu-160 bombers to Venezuela for another "training mission." These bombers are capable of carrying nuclear weapons. So much for relics. Venezuelan megalomaniac Hugo Chavez said, "The Yankee hegemony is finished," and indicated he wouldn't mind purchasing some Russian submarines. Not to be outdone, Brazil has expressed interest in purchasing Russian helicopters for an air force that is already the largest on the continent.
The public response from the USA? Crickets.
I've never understood why people are so voluntarily stupid. I guess it's because they're stupid. Everything the Russians have done in the past year has been another tick on their checklist. What will the USA do about A and B and C? A little further down the list is G, which stands for "good luck."
Once the Russians have armed people unfriendly to the US and its allies, established mucho political and economic ties to aggressive Latin American states, and based Russian military units on their soil, what then? Good question. You could hope that the Russians will get bored and go home, but I doubt that's the answer. Besides, it's academic: once you've armed aggressive people, they generally feel the need to try the stuff out with or without the permission of their arms dealer. Who's going to stop them? Chile?
One analyst in Peru gets it: Lima-based analyst Alejandro Deustua, of the country's Diplomatic Academy, criticised Russia's military role in South America, saying it was time for Russia to "explain plainly to each South American country what their intentions are with these military exercises."
Deustua has every right to be worried. When you're a goody-goody analyst snuggled deep in the comforting bed of Hope and Change, it's easy to laugh at Russia's "ham-fisted" attempt at turning Latin America into a sphere of influence. It's a bit different when you live in Latin America, in which case Russia's aggression doesn't appear ham-fisted at all. It looks like what it is: a threat.
Latin America's going to be in the news a lot in the coming years, whether American politicians like it or not.
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